No Problem...

Yeah, being down 2-0 is trouble. I could be more of a die hard fan and optimistically say that Ottawa has trailed for only 8 minutes out of 120. Or point out that they have held the lead for 3x more of the minutes than the Ducks. Or that the home ice crowd will soon energize the team and make all the difference. Or that having the last line change will make room for the Big Line to operate. There isn’t that much wrong.!? But I don’t really believe that.

I will say that the physical play of Game #2 is the ‘real’ Senators. I’ve said before, that they can bring it. But once again, the Ducks were more effective at the same game plan. The Ducks leading in all statistical categories, points to the facts that changes are necessary. Mainly, being a more physical and simple team.

My plan is to remove Spezza from the lineup. Madness you say? It has to be done. Here’s why:

1.) Sens have been giving away too many turnovers & not generating offense. It’s obvious that the Big Line has stood guilty of both counts. The other three lines kept it simple, since they did that all year long.
2.) They lost Spezza for an extended period in the regular season, and were sitting out of the playoffs. This is when the Sens rolled 4 lines and everyone was expected to perform. It’s the same situation, but 10x more urgent. They can win without him.
3.) Give Spezza another try at home? No. He’s had two kicks at the can. Now he gets kicked in the can. Everyone on the team was desperate last game, except Spezza.
4.) Putting in Eaves or McGratton instead of Spezza adds grit and defense. McGratton, the lead-footed fighter guy? Yup. At least he will hit somebody with his large frame instead of standing around, and he will NOT get cute with the puck. I’d rather see a goal against with a Duck laying on the ground, than celebrating.
5.) Won’t this take away all their offense? The Big Line has been shut down for two games. So, it can’t get less than zero. At least this will fix a glaring weakness.
6.) Salary is not a right to more playing time. The other three lines were working hard.
7.) Isn't this pulling a Lindy Ruff? No. It’s asking the guys to play their game. The Big Line's game doesn't suit the play that Anaheim brings. So, change it or remove it. Add another basic line. Don't ask Spezza to start hitting at this point in the season. But change what's wrong and add more of what's worked.
I’m not saying Spezza watches the game in street clothes, either. Dress him as an extra and let him play on the powerplay. It's the way the Sens have generated chances. Heatley gets more of a 4th line role, until he sacks-up; and of course gets his usual powerplay time too.

A 7-game series is about adjustments. Let the team win or lose, as a team. Don’t let any one person take the fall, unless it is the coach. Try to fix what’s wrong. Small line juggling didn’t work in Game #2. Time for bigger moves.

I would love to see that I’m completely wrong. The Sens go home and everything comes back together. The Wings had much more success at home. That last line change can be huge. But being down 0-2 is time for desperate measures. Down 0-3 is too late.

Worried? No. Anxious? Yes.

Good old fashioned beat down. Typical Senators game, play smart and dump the puck in to limit turnovers, use strong forecheck to create turnovers, take the play to the opponent, get to loose pucks first. However, we were on the receiving end of this gameplan. Senators got their own game given to them, and I didn't like it too much. The physical play of the Ducks created much of their chances. Big Line was ineffective with the puck.

Silver lining? That said, the Sens still almost had the perfect road game, despite playing marginal hockey. Score early and take the crowd out of it, then weather the storm. The Sens never trailed, until late in the game. Their powerplay made Anaheim pay for their sins, but the 5-on-3 PK won the game. Shoulda, woulda, coulda; but the Sens nearly pulled one out that they shouldn't have had.

I thought I was anxious for Game #1 to start. Now, I can't wait to see what adjustments/effort shows-up in game #2. To the uneducated, the Sens have not been outplayed in any game this playoffs. Only periods of games were sub-par. So this game was confusing to me. I kept expecting a Sens rally. The turnovers kept happening. Sens were dumping, but not chasing hard. Tape to tape passes were rare. I'm glad they were ahead or tied the whole game, but the effort wasn't up to par. I expect a different team to show up for game #2. They better...

Game One, Game On!

Sis is trying to get me tickets to game #1. SWEET! Will be uber-kewl to soak up the atmosphere of the Cup Final. I think that a lot of questions will be answered with game #1. I liked the NHL "Crystal Ball" forecast. A much more concise review than mine, but it is in agreement with what I am trying to say.

http://www.nhl.com/nhl/app/?service=page&page=NewsPage&articleid=310666

My Long Breakdown

First of all, the Senators are going to win it all.

I know that it is impossible for me to be objective at this point in the post-season. So, I'm not really going to try. I want the Senators to take advantage of this opportunity too badly. I think that both teams fully deserve to be where they are and have passed all the tests. The top goalies of the regular season were defeated (Loungo, Brodeur, Hasek, Miller), defensive teams broken (Wild, New Jersey), top offenses contained (Wings, Sabres, Penguins). I expect some great hockey. One interesting aspect of this matchup is that they haven't played each other. A lot of unknowns as far as match-ups. I don't necessarily like this, but it makes the anticipation that much greater.

So, here's my breakdown of the teams… *(Note: I have trademarked these names.)

OFFENSE - Senators have arguably the best top line in hockey right now. But the Ducks are no slouches. Andymac/Selanne, followed-up with the "Big Kids Line*" (Getzlaf/Perry/Penner) are a tough, one-two punch. One comes at you with speed and skill, while the others are cycle-you-to-death grinders. Much has been made of the Pahlsson/Neidermayer checking line, and rightly so. In a mirror image, the Sens second line loves to cycle-it and the checking line has shut down: Crosby/Malkin, Egg Line (Elias/Gomez/Gionta), and Briere/Vanek/Afinogenov. But, the Senators boast 4 lines and the extra offensive depth could make the difference. Sens.

DEFENSE - Top billing has to go to "Prongermayer*". The press loves them. Neidermayer had multiple clutch plays this post-season, while Pronger is putting points up and fought the conspiracy of the Canadian Media getting him suspended. ; ) You just can't match that talent in two guys. So, the Sens don't. The secret to the Sens success this post season has been defensive depth. Phillips, Meszaros, & Volchenkov, solid stopper defensemen. Volchenkov has more hits and blocked shots than the Ducks entire team! Not really, but I love that hard-nosed part of his game. Redden, Corvo, Preissing, are mobile, puck moving defensemen, that can contribute to the offense. A very good balance that has caused problems for the Eastern Conference. So, it is a matter of style: two guys dominating or 6 guys sharing the load. (Granted, Prongermayer is on the ice for 2/3 of every game!?) I like the Sens.

GOALTENDING - Giggy has been stellar. Emery has been good enough. Advantage Ducks.

SPECIAL TEAMS - Sens have been very 'special' in all aspects. Solid PK, timely powerplay goals and backbreaking shorties. Anaheim I'm not sure, 'cause I didn't see every playoff game they had. But the playoffs are about what you are doing right now, and the Sens had a bit of a slide in the last two games against Buffalo. Lets just say, Even.

PHYSICALITY - Ducks played pretty physical/goony all season. "I want my respect!" Tommy Gunn, Rocky V. But the playoffs are a different time and have not featured any Parros or McGratton. Ducks can play a punishing style and have the big bodies to do it. While lacking the matching ammunition, the Sens will match the desire. Comrie has been seen throwing his liliputian frame around and even fought in the Pens series. Everyone to a man has been taking the body. They will take whatever the Ducks dish out and send it right back. But, Advantage Ducks.

ADVERSITY - The whole reason the Sens are in the Final is because of regular season adversity. A bad start had question marks swirling; key injuries forced them to play a responsible, hardworking & balanced style that continued and intensified in the playoffs. Giggy has had plenty of personal reasons to be distracted, but that has only focused his resolve. I think getting pulled, in the 0-5 spanking, only proved to wake him up as well. Losing Kunitz forced Anaheim to re-focus. The Ducks developed a victim complex, to fuel their passion: the Pronger suspension, unfair officiating, biased media. Even.

KARMA - It looks like the Ducks are meant to win it. Burke got revenge on his old team, Anaheim beat their old coach, and will soon face their former GM. It's only appropriate that Teemu get his name on the Cup, he's a stand-up guy and an elite finisher; it would seal him as a Hall of Famer. Likewise, the Senators have chased away the choke-artist label. Alfredsson has gone from goat to hero in one year. The team that was considered to have too much flash & dash, has been the most hardworking and business-like in the league. It seems like both are meant to win. Even.

BLOGZILLA's KEYS

Matchups - Always key in any series, but who contains the Sens All-Star Line or the Ducks Big Kid Line? Sens have had problems with other big, physical forward lines on Pittsburgh and New Jersey. The downside to the Sens speedy, mobile defensemen is that they aren't very big. Likewise, the Sens #2 through #4 lines will be called to produce offense, with all attention on stopping Heatley/Spezza/Alfie. The fact that these two teams are unfamiliar makes this an obvious aspect of interest. Game #1 will reveal much.

Goaltending - Giggy stole games #4 & #5 from the Wings. It goes without saying that a hot goalie can mean a series. Emery must elevate his game.

Special Teams - Sens have ridden their Special Teams to get them where they are now. Big powerplay goals, shorthanded scores, and deadly PK. My main point is that Anaheim probably can't afford un-necessary penalties.

Discipline/Consistency - Night in and night out, the Sens have been turning in very solid effort. They don't get too high or low from a big win or loss or officiating call; at least it doesn't affect their play. The team has been a model of consistency. Sens have not lost their composure. They stick to the game plan, don't force offense, force turnovers, always backcheck to limit opportunities, clear loose rebounds, block shots, and finish checks. More than any single aspect, it is the team's will to win as a single cohesive group, that makes them so tough to beat this playoff. Ducks will probably not get away with inconsistent effort or un-disciplined play in this series (see '07 Buffalo Sabres).

Clarification

...in response to Poo's goaltending analysis. I don't think you can argue that Hasek was "swimming in the crease", 'cause that's what he does. And when you score on him, it looks really bad, like the game winner where he couldn't locate the puck on his back. But that doesn't happen too often. I saw all of his games, while he was with the Sens last season. I've gone on record as saying that the Dominator of old was back last year, before he got hurt at the Olympics. I thought the Wings took a huge gamble on Hasek's health, but his ability wasn't in question. The reason the Wings went deep in the playoffs is Hasek. I am not a fan of the traditional butteryfly style, and tend to hate goalies who use it. But I can't deny that Giggy played well and Hasek looked bad in game 6.

As a matter of style and technique, I prefer the aggressive, positional & athletic goalie. Legacy, Fuhr and Richter are examples of small goaltenders that master angles, skating and positional play; they have to be aggressive to make-up for size. Brodeur is very athletic, making weird jumping saves at times. Kipper is amazing. But the, stay deep in the crease, drop to the knees, just doesn't do it for me.

Next Monday

Looks like it's Sens/Ducks. Wings had their chances in the previous two games, but couldn't capitalize when out-playing the Ducks. I was afraid that the Ducks might come out with something closer to their A-game. They did. It was all Anaheim. Hasek was swimming around on his back. At least the Wings made a game of it. Ending was exciting. The series was pretty fun to watch.

I have already heard predictions of "Ducks in 5", from the Duck 'fans'. "We can shut down the Sens top line." "Pronger and Neidermayer."

Roadies

Solid road game by Anaheim. They came out hard early and got Detroit to take penalties. Then kept the score within one goal, as Detroit took the play to them. Giguere has stolen the last two games. I thought that the Ducks couldn't hold off Detroit's game, if it was a repeat of game #4. Well, I was mistaken. Detroit shot at the ducks 34 times (to 18) but came up like Elmer Fudd. Ducks carried the OT play. Selanne is too good to miss wide open opportunities like that.

CUP FINALS!!!!

YES! Sens dispose of the Sabres in 5 games. Sabres showed-up. Guys were diving for pucks and blocking shots. Similar to the end of game #4. Drury basically forced overtime by blocking an open net during a Sens powerplay. My problem with this is; where was the intensity all among? Sens have played that way from game #1 (against the Penguins). Definitely a case of too little, too late.

Very appropriate payback from last year. The high flying, high scoring, President's Trophy winning team, bows out in 5 games; sounds familiar... Also, love the personal redemption for Alfredsson. Game winner, with Pommenville on the ice.

I feel for Miller and Drury, those guys played hard. I like both players. But I knew the Sens had a great chance of taking the game when Drury caught a puck in the face, by his own team no less, and wasn't out there for the start of OT. He's a gamer, and none of the other Sabres followed his lead until it was too late.

Senators by a nose?

Rant. NBC sucks. I missed the end of the Senator's game since it went into overtime and horseracing was more important. At least Versus carries the WHOLE game. Mind you, I realize where hockey stands in the popularity/profitability of sports in the US. But, 'cmon, this was an elimination game in the Eastern Conference Final. And a pretty exciting game, right up to the OT. It bums me out, since I pay for the Season Pass and can't even see the end of an important playoff game.

Lucky

What a game. Ducks came out hard and had a two goal lead in the first. But the game was all Detroit from there. Ducks continue to take stupid penalites and got the Red Wings right back in the game. Giggy was up to the task, as Detroit got their 39 shots and numerous chances. Double screen powerplay goal was the winner for Anaheim, don't think Hasek ever saw the shot. Ducks displayed a lot of heart, but not much discipline. They can't do that the rest of the series and expect to win...

I've enjoyed this year's playoff games quite a bit. Mostly, because the Senators and Wings are in their respective conference finals. But the games have been entertaining. A lot of lead changes, late period goals, pulled-goaltender game tying goals, double overtimes, and exciting shutouts(!?). Old NHL featured slow, low scoring games, where the first team to score at all, always won. I think the big difference is that there are more scoring chances overall. Might just be me, but that's what I've seen so far.

9 seconds

I'm a little depressed this morning.... Well, that wasn't so good. Right from the opening bell, the Sabres had life scoring an improbable 9 seconds into the game. Powerplay goal 5-on-3. Then Emery let in a rather lame breakout goal. 0-3. Sens battled back, but weren't as sharp as normal. They had a major surge late in the second and got two goals back. 2-3. Sabres came out to play for the start of the third, but it was still mostly Ottawa. 15 shots in the 3rd, I believe. Two were off the crossbar. Miller held the fort. A late high stick by Heater, made any late comeback that much tougher.

Sabres finally got some bounces, and they were long over due. Their powerplay finally scored. Sabres showed some heart and were playing desperate and blocking shots. I think they had 18. I noticed that Lindy shortened the bench defensively, giving 4 guys the bulk of the minutes.

Things are back on track for the Sabres, right? Probably not. Sens still managed to outshoot the Sabres: 33 to 22. Add the blocked shots. 51 pucks heading toward the net. That's Red Wings territory. Not bad for an 'off' game by the Senators. If anything, it will inspire the boys to play hard from the first second of the game. Sens don't need any adjustments, just show up ready on Saturday.

Dismantling

5-0 dismantling of the Ducks. Wings did everything right and were disciplined. Anaheim was not. Too many consecutive bad penalties. Going head hunting with the game out of reach 4-0 was cheap. Fortunately, Homer was not seriously injured and came back to play; and finish off a fine game for him.

Cruisin'

The Ensenada Cruise was awesome! Alisia and I had a solid 36 hours of relaxing. The weather was perfect, not too hot or too cold. Dinners on the ship were very good. We even got dressed-up for the formal night. I have to work off 5 extra pounds from eating so much though...

3-0

Sweep? It's certainly possible, but unthinkable about a week ago.

Game #1 was a nailbiter. Sens came out of the gate hard and put up two quick goals. Sabres answered with two and it was tied going into the third. This was the series I had expected, no lead was safe. Well, three unanswered goals later it was a 5-2 Senators mauling. Game winner by none other than Saprykin? I think it was his only shot in the game. Speaking of which, the Sabres had only 20 shots, with 5 coming in the third. Sabres 0-5 on the power play. Senators 2-6 & a shorthander by Fisher.

Tonight I watched the sweetest 4 hours of hockey yet. I managed to not see the score for Saturday's game, which wasn't too difficult being out at sea or in Mexico. But resisted online temptation at work and was rewarded. Sabres clearly didn't want to drop two games at home, and came out flying. An early Sabres goal was disallowed because it was directed in with a glove. Whew, that was a good sign. But the Sabres scoring two goals after that was not. 15 shots in the first. All Sabres. Alfie scores on a sweet 3-on-2 play to cut it to 1-2 before the intermission. Senators re-grouped, scored 2 powerplay goals in the second, to lead 3-2. Sens control play all of the third period. Yes! My boys are going up 2-0. Not quite. Briere scores a tap in goal with 6 seconds left to force overtime! Sens re-group (again) and control most of the play for the first OT. Corvo scores in double-overtime. Once again, Sabres 0-7 on the powerplay, Senators 2-4. Sabres managed to out-shoot Ottawa, but most of that was due to their inspired first period. Fisher, Volchenkov and Schubert had some highlight reel hits. Emery had some huge saves.

Second part of tonight's matinee was the Senators first home game of the series. It was a tight game, like the others. But the Senators controlled play for the most part. Miller kept it close and it probably shouldn't have been. The numbers tell the story. Sabres: 15 shots, 17 hits, 0-6 on the powerplay. Senators: 32 shots, 26 hits. Emery got the shutout, but wasn't even voted one of the three stars! It was Alfredsson, Redden & Miller. Not sure what Lindy is telling his troops, but they looked a little confused tonight.

Sabres are in a deep hole, down 3-0. I honestly didn't expect that. Game #2 was a bounce either way, once it got into OT. But Games #1 & #3 were all about the Sens defensive corps, team defense, and forechecking. I think the absence of the Sabres powerplay added to their situation. Miller is doing his job, but you have to score to win.

Amp'd

Totally amped about tonight's game! It will be hard to focus. I still need to pack for our cruise and Barbara is coming in to town to watch Kalea & Kalani. Right now, I'm considering waiting to watch the game after we get everything packed and settled. Plus, I can speed through the intermissions and commercials at TIVO speed. I am also trying to figure out how to watch game #2. We will be in Ensenada and getting back on the ship when the game starts. Maybe there's a sports bar on the ship? I think Alisia will be understanding, since it's the playoffs, right?

Quiet

Here's the playoff beard. Haven't heard much from Poo since his Penguins went down in Round #1. I am also up on him for round #2. As Sens, Sabres, Ducks and soon Wings will be in their respective Conference Finals. I figure, even if the Sharks win, that makes it 100% chance for the Senators to be in California for the Cup Finals, after they beat the Sabres....

Eastern Conference Final is Final

Rangers are done. So, it is Senators/Sabres. This is the matchup I've been waiting for. The regular season saw some great games between these two teams. I will get to the point and say the Senators are winning the series.

Sabres weren't too impressive in the Islanders series and were pushed pretty hard by the Rangers. If not for Miller, the Sabres would be golfing right now. But I think it was a case of playing down to your opponent and roster changes from injuries. Sabres know what they are in for and should show up for this series. The other rounds no longer matter.

It is such a great matchup. Both teams feature great depth, incredible skill, defensive scoring, goaltending, and skating. I think the physical edge goes to Ottawa. Sens have checking machines in Neil, Fisher, Volchenkov & Schubert. Skill edge is even, both teams have two lines that can score highlight reel goals and get production from the 3rd and 4th lines. A lot has been said of the Sabres 4th line. It is solid. But the combined strength of Ottawa's 3rd & 4th line equalizes it out. Both teams have defensive scoring and can move the puck up quickly. Speed factor goes to Buffalo, only Anaheim has anything close to the speed of the Sabres. I see the Sabres generating most of their chances off the rush, and the Senators from cycling down low. Goaltending edge goes to Miller. I am a huge Emery fan, and he has elevated his game with each series. But I think Miller is playing better right now.

Not to be too cliche, but special teams will probably make the difference. Both teams have excellent powerplay and penalty kill. Sabres are not hitting on all cylinders on their powerplay and Ottawa's special teams have been excellent, especially the penalty kill. But beside that, I think they are even. Any advantage in this area will be huge.

Bad blood factor will be hyped, but not applicable. No one will take chances with stupid penalties when the stakes are this high. I don't see anyone going after Neil for past hits on Drury or Connolly. Emery will not get in a fight (but that would be kewl to see). But any and all physical play will be hyped-up by the telecasters.

Injuries could be the difference. Neil hurt his knee in game #5. Eaves has not returned since the Penguins series. It may seem wacky for me to say that injuries to 4th line players will hurt Ottawa. But Neil and Eaves are basically Sean Avery with less playing time. They hit everything and create chances through physical play. This cannot be understated in the playoffs. I hope they are both ready to go and at full effectiveness.

Go Sens!

YES!

Senators are in the Eastern Conference Final. I think the very hyped match-ups of super offensively talented Pittsburgh and uber-defensive New Jersey were a little overblown. Still, I think the Senators are playing well. Brodeur seems to have worn down from the regular season, as his play against Tampa and Ottawa would suggest. Simply not characteristic of him to let in such soft goals, especially in the playoffs. I feel for him, but fortunately his record and even recent play this year suggest it was an anomaly. Any other goaltender with a lesser resume would be questioned the rest of his career.
So far, the key for Ottawa seems to be balance. Solid play from four lines and two-way play from everyone. Emery is getting better each series. Now, it is a matter of waiting for the Rangers or Sabres.

*WHEW*

Huge games last night. It goes without saying that game #4 is all important. Just past mid-way for a 7 game series. No sweeps in this round. That leaves 3-1 or 2-2. Wings came back in nail-biting fashion. I think they got close to 50 shots again. Late goal by Lang tied the game. I watched Lang well before his Detroit time or even when he put big points up in Washington, we're talking LA Kings in the mid-late 90's. Why? Only because he wore #13. I think the Wings had to have game #4. Statistically, going down 3-1 is big trouble. As-in less than 10% come-back ratio, trouble. Speaking of 2-2 series, I think the Rangers will be glad to take their chances in a three game series with Buffalo. Go Rangers.?!

Sens got a huge win! I was shocked that Brodeur gave up soft goals in such an important game. Yes, Emery finally out-played Brodeur. Interesting, that both goalies had a assist in the game. Devils had powerplay chances early and mounted some attack in the second period, but it was otherwise mostly Senators. All my favorite guys got on the board: Alfredsson, Heatley & Fisher. Finally, Fisher gets a goal in the playoffs. He's been playing really well, just not getting it in the net. I had mentioned to Grant that I was hoping to NOT have a game to watch on Monday, when the new TV gets delivered. Hopefully, the Sens can close the series out on Saturday. At least they are in good position.