My Long Breakdown

First of all, the Senators are going to win it all.

I know that it is impossible for me to be objective at this point in the post-season. So, I'm not really going to try. I want the Senators to take advantage of this opportunity too badly. I think that both teams fully deserve to be where they are and have passed all the tests. The top goalies of the regular season were defeated (Loungo, Brodeur, Hasek, Miller), defensive teams broken (Wild, New Jersey), top offenses contained (Wings, Sabres, Penguins). I expect some great hockey. One interesting aspect of this matchup is that they haven't played each other. A lot of unknowns as far as match-ups. I don't necessarily like this, but it makes the anticipation that much greater.

So, here's my breakdown of the teams… *(Note: I have trademarked these names.)

OFFENSE - Senators have arguably the best top line in hockey right now. But the Ducks are no slouches. Andymac/Selanne, followed-up with the "Big Kids Line*" (Getzlaf/Perry/Penner) are a tough, one-two punch. One comes at you with speed and skill, while the others are cycle-you-to-death grinders. Much has been made of the Pahlsson/Neidermayer checking line, and rightly so. In a mirror image, the Sens second line loves to cycle-it and the checking line has shut down: Crosby/Malkin, Egg Line (Elias/Gomez/Gionta), and Briere/Vanek/Afinogenov. But, the Senators boast 4 lines and the extra offensive depth could make the difference. Sens.

DEFENSE - Top billing has to go to "Prongermayer*". The press loves them. Neidermayer had multiple clutch plays this post-season, while Pronger is putting points up and fought the conspiracy of the Canadian Media getting him suspended. ; ) You just can't match that talent in two guys. So, the Sens don't. The secret to the Sens success this post season has been defensive depth. Phillips, Meszaros, & Volchenkov, solid stopper defensemen. Volchenkov has more hits and blocked shots than the Ducks entire team! Not really, but I love that hard-nosed part of his game. Redden, Corvo, Preissing, are mobile, puck moving defensemen, that can contribute to the offense. A very good balance that has caused problems for the Eastern Conference. So, it is a matter of style: two guys dominating or 6 guys sharing the load. (Granted, Prongermayer is on the ice for 2/3 of every game!?) I like the Sens.

GOALTENDING - Giggy has been stellar. Emery has been good enough. Advantage Ducks.

SPECIAL TEAMS - Sens have been very 'special' in all aspects. Solid PK, timely powerplay goals and backbreaking shorties. Anaheim I'm not sure, 'cause I didn't see every playoff game they had. But the playoffs are about what you are doing right now, and the Sens had a bit of a slide in the last two games against Buffalo. Lets just say, Even.

PHYSICALITY - Ducks played pretty physical/goony all season. "I want my respect!" Tommy Gunn, Rocky V. But the playoffs are a different time and have not featured any Parros or McGratton. Ducks can play a punishing style and have the big bodies to do it. While lacking the matching ammunition, the Sens will match the desire. Comrie has been seen throwing his liliputian frame around and even fought in the Pens series. Everyone to a man has been taking the body. They will take whatever the Ducks dish out and send it right back. But, Advantage Ducks.

ADVERSITY - The whole reason the Sens are in the Final is because of regular season adversity. A bad start had question marks swirling; key injuries forced them to play a responsible, hardworking & balanced style that continued and intensified in the playoffs. Giggy has had plenty of personal reasons to be distracted, but that has only focused his resolve. I think getting pulled, in the 0-5 spanking, only proved to wake him up as well. Losing Kunitz forced Anaheim to re-focus. The Ducks developed a victim complex, to fuel their passion: the Pronger suspension, unfair officiating, biased media. Even.

KARMA - It looks like the Ducks are meant to win it. Burke got revenge on his old team, Anaheim beat their old coach, and will soon face their former GM. It's only appropriate that Teemu get his name on the Cup, he's a stand-up guy and an elite finisher; it would seal him as a Hall of Famer. Likewise, the Senators have chased away the choke-artist label. Alfredsson has gone from goat to hero in one year. The team that was considered to have too much flash & dash, has been the most hardworking and business-like in the league. It seems like both are meant to win. Even.

BLOGZILLA's KEYS

Matchups - Always key in any series, but who contains the Sens All-Star Line or the Ducks Big Kid Line? Sens have had problems with other big, physical forward lines on Pittsburgh and New Jersey. The downside to the Sens speedy, mobile defensemen is that they aren't very big. Likewise, the Sens #2 through #4 lines will be called to produce offense, with all attention on stopping Heatley/Spezza/Alfie. The fact that these two teams are unfamiliar makes this an obvious aspect of interest. Game #1 will reveal much.

Goaltending - Giggy stole games #4 & #5 from the Wings. It goes without saying that a hot goalie can mean a series. Emery must elevate his game.

Special Teams - Sens have ridden their Special Teams to get them where they are now. Big powerplay goals, shorthanded scores, and deadly PK. My main point is that Anaheim probably can't afford un-necessary penalties.

Discipline/Consistency - Night in and night out, the Sens have been turning in very solid effort. They don't get too high or low from a big win or loss or officiating call; at least it doesn't affect their play. The team has been a model of consistency. Sens have not lost their composure. They stick to the game plan, don't force offense, force turnovers, always backcheck to limit opportunities, clear loose rebounds, block shots, and finish checks. More than any single aspect, it is the team's will to win as a single cohesive group, that makes them so tough to beat this playoff. Ducks will probably not get away with inconsistent effort or un-disciplined play in this series (see '07 Buffalo Sabres).