Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Senators Preview

I've been putting this one off for months. Mostly because I had no
idea when or if Heatley was going to be traded. But that deal is done
and we are left with the roster that we have to live with this year.
Time to take a look...

I think there are many uncertainties at forward. How will Heatley's 50
goals be replaced? Alfredsson is not getting any younger and the drama
this team has lived through the last two years would prematurely age
anyone. This group could bonk as much as any, but I do see bright
spots. I see Alfie returning to form along with Spezza, who had an off
year along with the rest of the team. Between Michalek and Kovalev,
you have a replacement for Heatley's one timer on the powerplay. And
if anything, Michalek is probably more willing to use his large frame,
but that's to be proven. 5-on-5 is another story. I think it's asking
too much for Cheechoo to return to his Richard Trophy winning self.
But the sum of the parts: Michalek, Kovalev, and Cheechoo could be
more than what Heatley brought; at least I'm hopeful for the scoring
depth this team has wanted for years. There's a chance.

Defensively I'm concerned. Phillips and Volchenkov went from world
beaters to bums. I can only expect more than last season. However, the
remaining spots are shaky. If you aren't a defensive stalwart or a
offensive wonder, you get the remaining Senators defensmen. Tweeners.
Some offensive upside, but not defensive studs. They have prospects: a
big defenseman in Cowen and an offensive wonder in Karlsson, but I
think these guys need a few years of grooming. Until then, you make
due. But it may be tough making the playoffs this way.

Goaltending. Broken record here. Most teams ultimately blame their
lack of success on the goalie. This team is a classic example, along
with Philadelphia. These franchises have been borderline desperate to
get a goaltender, but just as quick to give up on them. So, that
problem was solved with... Pascal Leclaire! Oh damn. Just as many
question marks here. First off, I'm not a Leclaire fan. I don't like
injury prone goalies. I don't think he's proven himself. He played
under a very defensive system in Columbus (when he wasn't injured).
His numbers may be misleading. I think it was a gamble in signing this
guy. I hope to be proven wrong.

So, we have a team with question marks at forward, after losing a
50-goal scorer. A timid defense, beyond the shutdown pair that were
horrible last year, that's seeking a dynamic playmaker. Goaltending
hope. That seems like a lot of things that have to come together. I
want to be realistic, but that's depressing.

Here's my best case scenario. Clouston in a full season as head coach,
has command of this team. The locker room cancer is gone. They employ
that effective, dynamic, forechecking system, like the last half of
last season. Spezza and Alfie get back to form. Kovalev, Cheechoo and
Michalek get their 30+ goals. Regin and Fisher are a new dynamic duo
(per the pre-season so far). Karlsson makes the team this year and is
the Drew Doughty of 2009-10. Leclaire blows out his repaired ankle in
the opener, and Lehner jumps Elliott as starting goalie. Cowen makes
the team mid-year. Sens go deep in the playoffs.

Yeah, I don't think so either but that's why this time of year is
great. My team is undefeated and anything can happen.

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